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2017 Economic Outlook

How can anyone predict the future?

That’s the theme of this article. I’ve just finished reviewing a number of outlooks for 2017 and it reminds me of a joke I heard when I was in graduate school in Economics. Harry Truman used to pray, “Please G-d, send me a one-handed economist. ” (Because Economists are always saying, “on the one hand…, and on the other hand…”)  In other words–nobody knows!

To prove my point, here’s a sampling of economic projections for 2017:

Forbes Magazine 2017 Outlook

From Forbes, the outlook is rosy. Calling it a “mild rebound,” they are predicting the real growth in GDP to be over 3% in 2017, citing a “cyclical” increase. In plain-speak, this means the upward part of a business cycle, primarily based on increased consumer spending and general optimism. They also cite a significant increase in housing construction in 2016, particularly in multifamily housing (up 14% in the past year.)

To read the full article, CLICK HERE.

The balance (News BlogSite)

The balance, A news blog site takes a different view. Compiling a number of different “expert” views, they call the economy “healthy but not robust.” They predict GDP growth at slightly below the “healthy” 2-3% growth range, at just 1.8% for 2016 and just about 2.0% in 2017. Their source is the Federal Open Market Committee’s most recent bulletin of September 21, 2016.

To read more, CLICK HERE.

Focus Economics

Taking a global perspective, Focus Economics reports on international GDP growth of 2.5% this year, strengthening to 2.8% in 2017. This is in contrast to their outlook for the U.S., predicting 1.5% growth for 2016 and an increase to 2.1% in 2017, based on “solid consumer spending” in the world’s largest economy.

For more on international predictions, CLICK HERE.

Kiplinger

Finally, no economic survey is complete without the Kiplinger Report. According to this report, “The economy is neither hot nor cold right now.” They see economic growth as “middling” and agree with the above report of 1.5% growth in 2016 (compared to 2.6% GDP growth in 2015)  and about 2.0% GDP growth in 2017. They also cite increased disposable income (leading to more consumer spending) and growing housing demand as contributing factors.

More from Kiplinger, CLICK HERE.

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What to do in the face of uncertainty.

I used to work as a long-term forecaster in the energy industry. I always said that “forecasting is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.”

So if we can’t predict the future, how can we manage our fate? First of all, you need to know that it’s possible to succeed in any kind of economy. This has more to do with your individual focus and mindset than it does with any external situation.

I think the biggest factors in success in any economic environment is to be clear on your selling proposition, deliver on your “product” and have an excellent reputation in the marketplace. After all, even in a “recession” the majority of people are still buying and selling.

Sofia Capital Ventures offers world-class professional education to commercial mortgage intermediaries.  Check out our Professional Education page and JOIN the Commercial Lending Academy. 

By |November 29th, 2016|Commercial Lending, Private Commercial Lending|Comments Off on 2017 Economic Outlook
Barbara Leuin, Commercial Lending Expert
Barbara Leuin, Ph.D., Commercial Lending Expert, Carlsbad, CA, is a serial entrepreneur and real estate investor, with over 30 years of professional experience, including 13 years of university teaching in business and economics; 16 years of business consulting; and 5 years as a full-time real estate investor. Since 1996, she has helped start-up businesses access millions in private capital. As CEO, Barbara brings visionary leadership, team-building and leadership to Sofia Capital Ventures. She is responsible for lender relationships, broker training and identifying market opportunities.

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